Lowell Deeds

When it comes to managing computer projects, I’ve learned to follow the KISS principle (which stands for “keep it simple, stupid”). While computer systems seem complicated by nature, asking them to do too much, to be all things to all users, almost guarantees that the computer system won’t satisfy anyone. I was reminded of this last week when I saw “FBI May Scrap Vital Overhaul of Its Outdated Computer System” as the headline on the front page of the newspaper. The article states that the Bureau has already spent $170 million dollars searching for a customized replacement system for the obsolete and ineffective system now in place, but that the effort thus far is about to be scrapped as unworkable. I vaguely recall something similar happening with the Massachusetts Trial Court a number of years ago. The court spent millions of dollars to develop a “one size fits all” computer system that would serve all of its departments, but the effort never yielded a workable system. Here are my observations, for what they’re worth: Because computer technology changes so quickly, a custom built system for a governmental entity is doomed to fail since by the time it is ready to be installed (remember, governmental entities work at their own pace), it will already be obsolete. It’s much better to go with an existing system that’s modified to best fit your needs. Also, many people who don’t have a good understanding of how computers work look to them as the solution to all of their problems. The reality is that the computer is just one more tool you can use to improve the way you do your job. If you ask it to do too much, you will be very disappointed. But that’s enough pontificating for today . . .

According to a report by Michael Youngblood of the investment-banking firm Friedman Billings and Ramsey, the Massachusetts real estate market is still in “ full bubble mode”. This comes as no surprise to anyone that is looking to purchase real estate, sell real estate or just follows the market. But an interesting conclusion stated by Youngblood is that the bubble “won’t burst anytime soon”. Of course, this is great relief to those of us who have recently purchase real estate (it makes waking up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat…shall we say…a little less necessary). But…the scary part of the report states that the ratio of median home prices to per capita income is as high today as it was in the late 1980’s. Unfortunately, anyone associated with the real estate market during the late 80’s and early 90’s (yours truly) remembers that it was the beginning of a multi-year downward cycle. But those were the days of 12% interest rates. The fact that consumers are willing to spend a large percentage of their income on housing expenses is a strong indicator of their high confidence in the real estate market. The thinking is simple…”if I pay $300,000 for a house today, it will be worth $330,000 in a year”. Youngblood predicts that the bubble is not going to burst in the immediate future. His report says that the economy would have to shrink for a minimum of four straight quarters before housing prices begin to fall. The report was based on data collected in July, August and September of this year. During this period sales of single-family homes increased 6% while prices soared 11 % to a median statewide average of 350,000. .